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CRI's Most Recent Weekly Commodity Trend Survey
Weekly Commodity Trend Survey
Posted by: bbeamish Post ID: 4787 Posted on: 2014-05-04 Time(GMT): 18:57:41
05/02/14: Now that we are officially into the month of May one should be very cautious for the next six weeks. Historically, many commodity related business\'s use May as a seasonal pivot (where supply and demand influences peak) so one shouldn\'t be too surprised to see wild gyrations through this transitional period. Since we know most of the world\'s equity markets are very overextended I am troubled by what I see developing in the long end of the yield curve (see WCTS Blog post). It would appear bonds are starting to look more attractive relative to stocks. Couple all this with the turmoil out of Eastern Europe and I for one shall be reluctant to commit new money to ideas for a while yet.

Market
Symbol
Trend U/D
As of
# wks.
Position
Price
Stop
Target
Comment
Currencies
US Dollar index
DXY
D
09/20/13
35
Short
80.87
80.77
78.685
Br ab=cd; (84.965-80.87)-82.78=78.685.
Cdn. Dollar
CDY
U
05/09/14
02
Long
.9195
.9035
.96125
50% rule; (1.0380+.8845)/2=.96125.
British Pound
BPY
U
11/29/13
25
Long
1.6252
1.6455
Tgt hit
Bl ab=cd; (1.6252-1.5425)+1.5850=1.6677.
Euro. FX
ECY
U
12/21/12
74
Stop hit
1.3424
1.3669
Tgt hit
50% rule; (149.25+120.51)/2=1.3488.
Swiss Franc
SFY
U
09/20/13
34
Stop hit
1.0952
1.1179
1.1509
50% rule; (1.2978+1.0040)/2=1.1509.
Jap. Yen
JYY
U
05/16/14
01
Long
.9873
.9687
1.12265
50% rule; (1.2967+.9486)/2=1.12265.
Australian Dollar
ADY
D
12/20/13
22
Short
.8823
.9419
.8017
Br ab=cd; (1.0531-.8823)-.9725=.8017.
Interest rates (U means up in price, down in yield / D means down in price, up in yield)
Euro-dollars
ED
U
08/16/13
40
Long
99.735
99.743
Tgt hit
Bl ab=cd; (99.735-99.683)+99.72=99.772.
US 2-YR Note
ZT
D
04/04/14
06
Short
109.8125
110.2421875
110.453
Water fall to monthly tgt.
US 5-YR Note
ZF
D
12/06/13
24
Stop hit
121.09375
120.078125
Tgt hit
Testing lows from 09/06/13.
US 10-YR Note
ZN
D
12/06/13
24
Stop hit
125.718750
125.078125
Tgt hit
Testing lows from 09/06/13.
US 30-YR Bond
ZB
U
05/02/14
03
Long
135.53125
131.18750
140.53125
Br ab=cd; (153.34375+127.71875)/2=140.53125.
Stock Indicies
Dow 30
YM
U
07/20/12
96
Stop hit
13365
14749
Tgt hit
Bl ab=cd; (13662-11998)+12476=14140.
Nasdaq 100
NQ
U
08/24/12
90
Stop hit
2791.5
3422
Tgt hit
Bl ab=cd; (2791.50-2135.75)+2433.75=3089.50.
S&P 500
ESY
U
08/24/12
91
Stop hit
1450.50
1760.25
Tgt hit
Bl ab=cd; (1419.60-1147.50)+1262.30=1534.40.
S&P/TSX 60 (Cash)
WSX
U
09/06/13
37
Long
742.39
810.81
Tgt hit
Bl ab=cd; (742.39-637.70)+677.55=782.24.
FTSE-100
FTSE
U
12/14/12
72
Stop hit
6664
6623
6970
Bl ab=cd; (6664-6003)+6310=6970.
Ger. DAX (Cash)
DAX
U
12/07/12
75
Stop hit
8457.05
8994.28
Tgt hit
Bl ab=cd; (8457.05-7655.83)+=8094.22=8895.44.
Nikkei
SNIY
D
04/11/14
06
Short
14110
15230
12330
50% rule; (16450+8210)/2=12330.
SPI Aust. (Cash)
ASX
U
07/16/12
97
Long
5383.40
5288.50
5886.9
Bl ab=cd; (5249.6-3985)+4622.3=5886.9.
Metals
Gold
%GC
D
11/22/13
26
Stop hit
1254.10
1269.40
Tgt hit
Br ab=cd; (1428.00-1254.1)-1359.7=1185.80.
Silver
%SI
D
12/21/12
74
Stop hit
20.675
20.53
18.695
Br ab=cd; (24.98-20.675)-23.00=18.695.
HG Copper
%HG
D
03/07/14
11
Stop hit
3.21
3.1445
2.6970
Br ab=cd; (3.7755-3.0065)-3.4660=2.6970.
Platinum
%PL
U
05/16/14
01
Long
1468.30
1400.00
1515.95
50% rule; (1736.5+1295.40)/2=1515.95.
Palladium
%PA
U
10/18/13
31
Long
747.65
699.90
862.20
Bl ab=cd;(785-560.4)+637.6=862.20.
Energies
Crude Oil Weekly
%CL
D
01/10/14
19
Stop hit
91.77
100.75
79.68
Br ab=cd; (112.24-91.77)-100.75=79.68.
Heating Oil
%HO
D
03/07/14
11
Short
2.9960
3.0216
2.8108
Br ab=cd; (3.37-2.996)-3.1848=2.8108.
Unleaded Gas
%RBOB
U
02/21/14
13
Long
2.8463
2.8252
3.4455
Testing high fr 03/30/12.
Natural Gas
%NG
U
10/18/13
31
Stop hit
3.869
4.563
Tgt hit
Bl ab=cd; (3.869-3.129)+3.379=4.119.
Softs
Coffee
%KC
U
01/31/14
16
Long
122.75
166.00
Tgt hit
50% rule; (105+240)/2=172.5.
Orange Juice
%JO
U
03/03/14
11
Long
155.75
152.40
Tgt hit
50% rule; (226.95+97.10)/2=162.00.
Cocoa
%CC
D
04/28/14
03
Short
2905
3021
2542.5
50% rule; (3039+2046)/2=2542.5.
Sugar #11
%SB
D
04/18/14
05
Stop hit
16.67
18.10
14.70
Testing lows from 01/27/14.
Cotton
%CT
U
03/24/14
08
Long
93.90
88.63
146.55
50% rule; (227+66.10)/2=146.55.
Lumber
%LB
D
01/31/14
16
Short
351.50
345.80
Tgt hit
50% rule; (378.3+276.2)/2=327.25.
Grains
Soybeans
%S
U
02/14/14
14
Long
1353.50
1443.75
1563.25
Gap to be filled.
Soy Meal
%SM
U
02/28/14
12
Long
468.60
413.80
Tgt hit/font>
Gap to be filled.
Soy Oil
%BO
D
06/28/13
47
Stop hit
46.52
41.81
Tgt hit
Br ab=cd; (57.78-46.52)-53.57=42.31.
Wheat
%W
D
12/13/13
23
Stop hit
623.00
711.25
Tgt hit
Br ab=cd; (741.75-623)-711.25=592.5.
Corn
%C
D
07/19/13
43
Stop hit
626.50
434.25
Tgt hit
Br ab=cd; (843.75-626.50)-730=512.75.
Oats
%O
U
01/17/14
18
Stop hit
398.5
386.00
Tgt hit
Bl ab=cd; (398.5-303)+336.5=432.
Meats
Live Cattle
%LC
D
04/11/14
06
Short
142.625
147.00
Tgt hit
Br ab=cd; (153.00-142.625)-147.425=137.05.
Feeder Cattle
%FC
U
01/10/14
66
Long
168.475
166.425
Tgt hit
Bl ab=cd; (168.475-155.925)+162.75=.
Lean Hogs
%LH
U
02/28/14
10
Long
102.56
112.20
Tgt hit
Br ab=cd; (102.56-70.375)+80.225=112.41.

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This web site has been produced by Brian Beamish for Brian Beamish, a news-letter writer. The information contained in this website is drawn from sources believed to be reliable, but the accuracy or completeness of the information is not guaranteed, nor in providing it does Brian assume any responsibility or liability. This information is current as of the date appearing on specific reports within this site and Brian Beamish assumes no obligation to update the information or advise on further developments relating to these securities. This information is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy securities and is intended for distribution only in those jurisdictions where permited. The reproduction, copying, sale, resale, re-distribution, dissemination or unauthorized use, by any means whatsoever, of content (whether in whole or in part) from the Web Site to any third-party without the prior written permission of Brian Beamish is strictly prohibited. The Web Site contains links to other web sites or web pages that are not under the control of Brian Beamish and therefore cannot be responsible for the content, policies, or any other aspect of such web sites or web pages.
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